A fictitious memo written for The Road to the White House, a class about the 2016 election and the general American presidential elections. I wrote the memo to John Kasich on methods to encourage Asian American youth to turn out.
Despite writing about voter turnout techniques, I was not completely convinced that there was a good way to increase voter turnout, even selecting for a specific demographic of voters. Amusingly, despite this being an assignment, the course did much more to convince me that most electoral methods were ineffective at changing the outcome of an election, despite all of the talking head commentary displayed on network television.
Writing a memo to the individual you expect to be the 2016 Democrat or Republican nominee for the presidency of the United States. Your memo should offer advice as to the specific strategy that your candidate needs to pursue to attract and win the youth vote (18-29 year olds) in the general election.
As you know, voters are an immensely varied group, so this diversity should be evident in your assumptions, evidence, and analysis. To make your memo as specific as possible, feel free to break down this demographic into sub groups (for example, based a smaller age group, gender, ethnicity, region, political ideology, or other factors). Whatever approach you take, your reasoning should be clearly stated and your analysis should be supported with sound academic research and empirical data. You also should explain why the strategy you recommend is appropriate for your candidate.
Losing the youth vote will be the easiest way to lose the general election and waste a billion dollars. Making up close to a third of the electorate in 2016, this growing demographic is markedly different from traditional political blocs. They skew far more socially liberal than older generations on topics of gay rights, immigration and marijuana (“Millennials” 2014). They resent traditional labels and establishment figures. But despite voting at far lower rates than the generation before them, they still command a powerful proportion of the vote. Enough that were Mitt Romney to simply split the youth vote evenly with President Obama in 2012, Mitt Romney would be preparing his reelection campaign (Robillard 2012). Thus, not only is capturing the youth vote necessary, but doing so would also bode well for the future of the party and help capture a Republican Congress as well. Tackling this necessary challenge will be difficult, as the demographic generally leans liberal, but not impossible. In particular, young Asian Americans are a particularly promising segment of the youth vote, with Asian Americans overall representing 4% of the electorate now and 9% in the recent future (Mo 2015). Because the Asian American demographic is not as commonly considered as other minority segments, this memo begins by detailing some Asian American statistics. This this memo discusses how to leverage that information to the campaign’s advantage with concrete steps that both the candidate and the campaign can take. Young Asian Americans represent a politically promising demographic for the Republican party. Young Asian Americans are the most likely to consider themselves independent (44%) (“CIRCLE” 2014). Those without a college education showed the lowest turnout overall. Additionally, they are less likely to be registered to vote (Ramakrishnan 2014). But these statistics do not indicate that Asian Americans are not involved or cannot be mobilized. Rather, Asian Americans are moved to participate through other avenues. Young Asian Americans are more likely than their peers to donate to charitable causes (“CIRCLE” 2014). They are also more responsive to online engagement in interest driven activities and participatory politics. In sum, these statistics demonstrate a window of opportunity for the campaign. It is clear that this demographic is more likely than their peers to be willing to vote Republican, has substantial room for growth, and can be engaged. Young Asian Americans do not vote not because they are not interested, but because no one has made the effort to reach them.
The good news for the campaign and Republicans: Republican ideals resonate strongly with the Asian American demographic. A core message of a strong economy and opportunity has and continues to resonate with the Asian American community at large. Asian Americans are more likely to agree with the sentiment that hard work is the key to success (Mo 2015). The typical Asian American family structure is more aligned with classic Republican family ideals. As a result, Asian Americans were originally considered a natural Republican demographic. Two decades ago, 74% of the Asian American vote went to the Republican presidential candidate (MO 2015). Promisingly, Asian American attitudes towards the economy and jobs have not shifted much in the past two decades (Khalid 2015).
The bad news: Asian Americans do not vote Republican because they feel excluded. In both 2008 and 2012, Asian Americans voted strongly in favor of President Obama, around 63% and 73% respectively (Mo 2015). This represents a huge shift away from classic conservatism (Murray 2012). While this may due in part to young Asian Americans leaning more liberal on social issues such as abortion and immigration, perhaps the most compelling cause is an association of the Republican Party with social exclusion (Kuo, et al., 2015). Indeed, studies demonstrate that Asian Americans are less likely to feel patriotic, a feeling that correlates with feeling socially excluded (Cheryan and Monin 2005). Studies have demonstrated that other Americans view Asian Americans as less American than other minority groups (Devos and Ma 2008). Asian Americans are very likely to be discriminated against in all aspects of life, from in the workplace or on the street. This kind of exclusion becomes associated with the Republican Party because of the rhetoric that Republicans are likely to use (Menendian 2015). Consider the remarks made by Donald Trump (Khalid 2015) and Jeb Bush (Lee 2015) that alienated Asian American voters. It should come as no surprise that Asian Americans lean left if they do not feel included in the Republican party.
This information indicates some clear action steps to ensure that the campaign is able to reverse this trend and capture the Asian American vote. The most crucial aspect of any strategy is to address Asian Americans as a nuanced demographic, not as a stereotype. Asian America, although captured by one term, is hugely diverse and responds poorly to stereotypes (Lee 2015). In previous elections it might have been difficult to distinguish yourself from other Republican candidates and their casual, but off putting remarks. This cycle, however, offers the opportunity to distance and contrast yourself as a candidate. It is crucial that your language is nuanced and considerate. It is critical to avoid gaffes such as the one that distanced Asian American supporters from Jeb Bush. Because Asian America is divided into many different minority groups, from Filipino Americans, Chinese Americans, Korean Americans, etc. who all have varying interests and opinions, it is critical that any rhetoric involving Asian America is nuanced and well thought out. This is a candidate level action item.
In terms of a national campaign, it will incredibly worthwhile to perform targeted Asian American outreach. Simply reaching out is effective. As one study demonstrates, not only do very few Asian Americans get reached out to by most campaigns, either via phone or other means, simply calling increases Asian American turnout (Wong, 2005). Since money will likely be in large supplies during the general election, as well as huge data driven programs, it should be simple to conduct Asian American specific outreach. This will have to involve multilingual outreach on multiple platforms. Additionally, to reach young Asian Americans, consider targeted online outreach, which has been shown to reach young Asian Americans (“CIRCLE” 2014). This is a national campaign level action item. However, it will not be enough only to have a message that resonates with Asian Americans or set up phonebanks.
In order to secure the young Asian American vote this election cycle and into the future, it is necessary to organize young Asian Americans. Take advantage of RNC Asian American outreach and leadership training programs to find leaders and organizers (GOP 2015). Both parties are moving to mobilize young Asian Americans (Lumb 2015). Rather than simply recruiting them as volunteers for the campaign, it will be more effective both for the campaign come November and in the future to train them as organizers and leaders. Part of the success of President Obama’s 2008 campaign may have been to his campaign’s unique focus on training, organizing, and empowering his young volunteers (Ganz 2011). Millennials contribute the most when they feel as if they are working to a higher cause, feel included, and have a sense of agency. With a vision centered message and campaign that is racially sensitive in its rhetoric, the campaign may be able to mobilize young Asian Americans and empower them to make huge contributions to the campaign. Having their voice and talents should prove to make the campaign even more effective in reaching out to Asian American voters. Furthermore, as more Asian Americans are mobilized and energized to participate in politics, it could bode well overall for the Republican Party. Organizing, recruiting, training young Asian Americans to put them in leadership positions is a national campaign action item.
Finally, it is vital that the campaign move quickly. Even though the campaign is at a particularly contested primary cycle right now, mobilizing young Asian Americans now will prove hugely beneficial for the future. This is because training and organizing volunteers is a lengthy process (Ganz 2011). Building up a network of connected volunteers and preparing them for the general election is a vital and important step towards winning the general election. Furthermore, the Clinton campaign is looking to mobilize the same demographic. However, she is currently embroiled in a lengthy primary fight with Senator Sanders and must devote substantial resources to maintain her front runner legitimacy (Stein 2016). This gives the campaign an opportunity to get a head start on the Clinton campaign.
Certainly, simply appealing to Asian American youth alone is not enough to win the election. However, building a base of support within that community will broaden the appeal of the campaign as well as conservative principles. The Asian American demographic is a promising demographic that is responsive to Republican messages. However, in order to effectively draw them to the campaign, it is necessary that the candidate be racially sensitive. It is necessary for the campaign to organize and mobilize young Asian Americans. Finally, reaching out to Asian American voters using those volunteers, keeping in mind racial diversity, will help draw Asian American voters to the voting booths.